Since the April 22nd attack on tourists in Kashmir, India and Pakistan have been involved in a back and forth conflict that has made many worried about the possibility of war. In the last two weeks, the situation has escalated outside of direct attacks alone and spread to pre existing treaties and assurances. World leaders have issued statements and have tried to intervene in the affair, as both countries are nuclear powers. This escalation ended last Saturday when Indian and Pakistani officials declared a ceasefire and opened up to a possibility of future truce talks. In such a short span of time, major treaties and international positions have been shifted and realigned. The following is a clear breakdown of the conflict, how it started, and what the future may hold for the two countries at odds.
Background
India and Pakistan’s traveler goes back to 1947, during the Partition of British-ruled India. This established a Muslim-majority nation of Pakistan, and a Hindu-majority nation of India. The dominant religion of each country plays an important role in the territory disputes to this day. The regions of Jammu and Kashmir, which have their own culture and history, have been disputed ever since. There have been wars and military conflicts in 1948, 1965, 1971, and in 1974, India’s development of nuclear weapons launched an arms race that eventually
established both countries as nuclear powers.
Another war took place in 1999 over the LOC, or the established Line of Control (a region that splits t
he disputed parts of Kashmir into two, one Indian and one Pakistani controlled). In 2008, an attack in Mumbai was carried out by Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a militant group that aims to unite Kashmir and Pakistan. LeT has alleged ties to Pakistan’s primary intelligence agency, which prompted Indian officials to turn to the Pakistani government. Since then there have been border skirmishes surrounding the LOC, and India has removed Kashmir’s special status and autonomy as an independent region under India’s Hindu Nationalist ruling party. According to the Council fo Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker (CFR), this has led to an uptick in religion-targeted killings in the area.
Recent Developments
On April 22nd, militants attacked tourists and killed 25 Indian citizens and one Nepali citizen. The militant group LeT claimed responsibility for the attacks online, and India blamed Pakistan responsible for harboring the group while Pakistan denied involvement. This attack led to a significant retaliation by India, which ordered all Pakistani nationals to leave the country in 48 hours, closed the Attari border crossing, and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty. This treaty ensures the flow of the Indus river and its tributaries to Pakistan, and according to CBS its suspension is “impacting millions of people in that country.” Pakistan closed all of its airspace to Indian flights and suspended trade and visas for Indian citizens.
On Wednesday, India conducted “retaliation strikes.” According to the CFR, “The strikes,
when they came, were much wider than in 2019 —they were conducted against nine sites in Pakistan that the Indian government claimed were associated with terrorist camps and infrastructure.” This decisive and significant action shows that to both countries. Nuclear weapons are not as much of a deterrence as previously considered. It is this reason that many world leaders, including US officials, tried to intervene and urge de-escalation.
On Saturday, a ceasefire was declared, albeit a fragile one. According to the BBC, “This ceasefire is bound to be a fragile one. It came about
very quickly, amid sky-high tensions. India appears to have interpreted it differently than did the US and Pakistan,” Michael Kugelman, a foreign policy analyst, told the BBC. “Also, since it was put together so hastily, the accord may lack the proper guarantees and assurances one would need at such a tense moment.”
BBC also reports that since the ceasefire, both sides have reported “violations” of the treaty. The ceasefire includes an agreement to future truce talks between the two countries, although not directly about Kashmir just yet.
“Immediately [the] Kashmir issue might not be discussed – but after some confidence building measures, the issue of Kashmir will be on the table,” said Anwaar ul Haq Kakar, the former prime minister of Pakistan now involved in the talks. For now, the talks will focus on other issues such as reinstating the Indus Waters Treaty.
