2020 Presidential Election Forecast
October 27, 2020
As the Presidential Election draws near, many Americans are preparing to cast their ballots on November 3rd. While Early Voting has already broken records, and millions have mailed-in their ballots, everyone will be waiting anxiously to hear the outcome of this election. Below is my official Election forecast. I took into consideration current polling, analysis, forecasts from other news sources, and referenced the 2016 Election in my guesswork of who wins what state. This is a completely unbiased article, with the projected winner based solely on political analysis.
This is a list of each state and which candidate is currently leading in the polls. States where the candidate is leading by five or more points have the candidates name by them as the “winner”, but a state with less than a two point margin are listed as “toss-up” with the candidate in the lead in parentheses.
Alabama: Trump
Alaska: Trump
Arizona: Toss-up (Leaning Biden)
Arkansas: Trump
California: Biden
Colorado: Biden
Connecticut: Biden
Delaware: Biden
D.C.: Biden
Florida: Toss-Up (Leaning Biden)
Georgia: Toss-Up (Leaning Biden)
Hawaii: Biden
Idaho: Trump
Illinois: Biden
Indiana: Trump
Iowa: Toss-Up (Leaning Biden)
Kansas: Trump
Kentucky: Trump
Louisiana: Trump
Maine: Biden
Maryland: Biden
Massachusetts: Biden
Michigan: Biden
Minnesota: Biden
Mississippi: Trump
Missouri: Trump
Montana: Trump
Nebraska: Trump
Nevada: Biden
New Hampshire: Biden
New Jersey: Biden
New Mexico: Biden
New York: Biden
North Carolina: Toss-Up (Leaning Biden)
North Dakota: Trump
Ohio: Toss-Up (Leaning Trump)
Oklahoma: Trump
Oregon: Biden
Pennsylvania: Biden
Rhode Island: Biden
South Carolina: Trump
South Dakota: Trump
Tennessee: Trump
Texas: Toss-Up (Leaning Trump)
Utah: Trump
Vermont: Biden
Virginia: Biden
Washington: Biden
West Virginia: Trump
Wisconsin: Biden
Wyoming: Trump
Scenario One: The “True to Polls” Forecast:
My first forecast is the most simplistic. This forecast is based solely on which candidate is leading in the polls. If a candidate is leading in the polls in a state, I declared them the winner of that state. Here is the first possible outcome of this election:
As you can see, if every state votes true to polls, Biden would win 356-182. This is the most simplistic, and most unlikely outcome for this election.
Scenario Two: The “Every Toss-Up State Votes Trump” Forecast:
While the name of this forecast is overly long and I had no idea what else to call it, it basically describes this outcome. I kept all the other states the same, but every state I labeled as a “Toss-Up” I labeled as a Trump win. Here are the results:
This forecast narrows the results of the election by a lot, and leaves the most margin of error, but Biden still wins 279-259. Even though Trump is able to swing the key states of Ohio and Florida in his favor, he still is unable to win. Again, it is not highly likely that every “Toss-Up” state swings Trump’s way, but it’s not out of the question.
Scenario Three: The “Every Toss-Up State Votes for Biden” Forecast:
Again, not a very snappy name, but it is the most basic description of this forecast. I kept all the other states the same, and labeled each “Toss-Up” state as a Biden victory. Here are these results:
This forecast results in a Biden blowout, as he swings almost every key state in his favor. Ohio, Florida and Texas are the biggest swings, although it’s highly unlikely Biden wins Texas. This is another unlikely scenario, as it is rare one candidate swings almost every swing state.
Background: The 2016 Election:
Below is the official Electoral College vote distribution of the 2016 Election between Trump and Clinton.
I used this map as a solid base to make my final forecast. The key states Biden is projected heavily to win that Clinton was not able to win were Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. These three states would’ve drastically changed the outcome of the 2016 Election, and will do the same for this election. But now that you know the background, you can see the official forecast.
Official Forecast:
Between all these scenarios, polls and referencing the 2016 Election, I was able to make a forecast of the most likely scenario. I’m not saying this will be entirely right, but from the information available, this is what I have:
So, the official forecast is Biden winning 296-242. Biden takes the victory by winning the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Trump still manages to swing Ohio and Florida, but it’s not enough as Biden already has a huge lead from the Coastline-Western states and the Northeast states, including California and New York, which combine for 84 Electoral Votes. But my guess is as good as yours, and we won’t really know until the nigh of November 3rd.
Carson is a senior at Liberty, and is in his second year of writing for the Patriot Press. Carson mainly covers the sports and entertainment side of the...
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