2020 Presidential Election Forecast

2020+Presidential+Election+Forecast

Carson Zorn, Writer

As the Presidential Election draws near, many Americans are preparing to cast their ballots on November 3rd. While Early Voting has already broken records, and millions have mailed-in their ballots, everyone will be waiting anxiously to hear the outcome of this election. Below is my official Election forecast. I took into consideration current polling, analysis, forecasts from other news sources, and referenced the 2016 Election in my guesswork of who wins what state. This is a completely unbiased article, with the projected winner based solely on political analysis.

This is a list of each state and which candidate is currently leading in the polls. States where the candidate is leading by five or more points have the candidates name by them as the “winner”, but a state with less than a two point margin are listed as “toss-up” with the candidate in the lead in parentheses.

Alabama: Trump

Alaska: Trump

Arizona: Toss-up (Leaning Biden)

Arkansas: Trump

California: Biden

Colorado: Biden

Connecticut: Biden

Delaware: Biden

D.C.: Biden

Florida: Toss-Up (Leaning Biden)

Georgia: Toss-Up (Leaning Biden)

Hawaii: Biden

Idaho: Trump

Illinois: Biden

Indiana: Trump

Iowa: Toss-Up (Leaning Biden)

Kansas: Trump

Kentucky: Trump

Louisiana: Trump

Maine: Biden

Maryland: Biden

Massachusetts: Biden

Michigan: Biden

Minnesota: Biden

Mississippi: Trump

Missouri: Trump

Montana: Trump

Nebraska: Trump

Nevada: Biden

New Hampshire: Biden

New Jersey: Biden

New Mexico: Biden

New York: Biden

North Carolina: Toss-Up (Leaning Biden)

North Dakota: Trump

Ohio: Toss-Up (Leaning Trump)

Oklahoma: Trump

Oregon: Biden

Pennsylvania: Biden

Rhode Island: Biden

South Carolina: Trump

South Dakota: Trump

Tennessee: Trump 

Texas: Toss-Up (Leaning Trump)

Utah: Trump

Vermont: Biden

Virginia: Biden

Washington: Biden

West Virginia: Trump

Wisconsin: Biden

Wyoming: Trump

Scenario One: The “True to Polls” Forecast:

My first forecast is the most simplistic. This forecast is based solely on which candidate is leading in the polls. If a candidate is leading in the polls in a state, I declared them the winner of that state. Here is the first possible outcome of this election:

As you can see, if every state votes true to polls, Biden would win 356-182. This is the most simplistic, and most unlikely outcome for this election.

Scenario Two: The “Every Toss-Up State Votes Trump” Forecast:

While the name of this forecast is overly long and I had no idea what else to call it, it basically describes this outcome. I kept all the other states the same, but every state I labeled as a “Toss-Up” I labeled as a Trump win. Here are the results:

This forecast narrows the results of the election by a lot, and leaves the most margin of error, but Biden still wins 279-259. Even though Trump is able to swing the key states of Ohio and Florida in his favor, he still is unable to win. Again, it is not highly likely that every “Toss-Up” state swings Trump’s way, but it’s not out of the question.

Scenario Three: The “Every Toss-Up State Votes for Biden” Forecast:

Again, not a very snappy name, but it is the most basic description of this forecast. I kept all the other states the same, and labeled each “Toss-Up” state as a Biden victory. Here are these results:

This forecast results in a Biden blowout, as he swings almost every key state in his favor. Ohio, Florida and Texas are the biggest swings, although it’s highly unlikely Biden wins Texas. This is another unlikely scenario, as it is rare one candidate swings almost every swing state.

Background: The 2016 Election:

Below is the official Electoral College vote distribution of the 2016 Election between Trump and Clinton.

I used this map as a solid base to make my final forecast. The key states Biden is projected heavily to win that Clinton was not able to win were Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. These three states would’ve drastically changed the outcome of the 2016 Election, and will do the same for this election. But now that you know the background, you can see the official forecast.

Official Forecast:

Between all these scenarios, polls and referencing the 2016 Election, I was able to make a forecast of the most likely scenario. I’m not saying this will be entirely right, but from the information available, this is what I have:

So, the official forecast is Biden winning 296-242. Biden takes the victory by winning the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Trump still manages to swing Ohio and Florida, but it’s not enough as Biden already has a huge lead from the Coastline-Western states and the Northeast states, including California and New York, which combine for 84 Electoral Votes. But my guess is as good as yours, and we won’t really know until the nigh of November 3rd.